It has been a nightmare for most investors in august. We saw prices drop over the last month. The biggest losers in the top 10 coins being ethereum which dropped 35% (450 to 290) within a month. Bitcoin being more resilient but still dropped by only 10% (7800 to 7020). The drop in prices was especially drastic in the first half of the month as we saw ethereum testing below USD200 and bitcoin below USD6,000.
What will the month of Sep be looking at ?
Scenario 1: Reversal to bull market (Unlikely)
There have been a lot of fear in the market especially in the recent drop. Most are waiting for recovery to breakeven and to lock in some profit. Many are staying on the sidelines. For crypto to reverse to a bull market, new funds need to come in. Notwithstanding, there are some possible big news that may possibly moved the market to bullish position.
This include the listing of both bitcoin and ethereum futures. I think the introduction of btc etf is going to boost demand for crypto which may be a game changer.
Scenario2: Bear Market (Unlikely）
This is a scenario if the approval plans for btc and ethereum did not go through. This may results in more crypto dumping. Price dumps may be expected from VCs, and altcoins projects which seek to dump ether and altcoins in fear of further price drop. Price dump for ether is likely but the comfort is that the difficulty timebomb issue for ethereum has been delayed further.
I think ethereum dump in September may not happen but long run until scaleability and difficulty timebomb issue is resolved, ethereum price may correct severely especially in the midst of intense competition from other competitors
Scenario3: Range bound
This is the most likely scenario as I expect investors to take profit on small gains. As mentioned, the game changer will come when btc etf is approved as it means new anticipated institutional funds may possibly enter the crypto markets. But I am personally not surprised if the decision get delayed again and this will likely resulted in a rangebound trade.
Year to date bitcoin chartMoreover, if we look at the year to date btc graph, btc although recovered from its low of USD6k has not gone pass the trendline. My viewpoint is for the month of Sept btc may likely trade higher than Aug, but it should be a range bound trade of within 20%. However, when btc moving average price start getting past USD7.5k; (which is above the trendline) things may get interesting. This is definitely a price point to look out for.
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